全球金融危机下的贸易保护主义——理论与实证分析

Trade Protectionism Under The Global Financial Crisis:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

本文分析了全球金融危机下贸易保护主义的未来发展趋势以及实施的影响因素。通过运用非期望效用的进化博弈理论,指出全球金融危机下,国家是有限理性的,从世界整体看,合作和自由是最终的趋势;从具体各国来看,贸易保护主义的实施不仅仅由实施政策的收益和损失决定,与各国对政策决策权重的判断和程度也有密切的关系。通过美国对中国反倾销的实证分析证明了上述观点,并发现各因素与贸易保护主义实施的可能性均有正的相关性,其中收支函数的影响最大,两国之间的交互作用影响最小。在此基础上,本文提出了中国应对贸易保护主义的对策。

This paper analyzes the development trends of trade protectionism and its factors under the international financial crisis.by the non-expected utility of evolutionary game theory and empirical analysis,this paper points out that the country is bounded rationality under the international financial crisis.Taking a view of the whole world,cooperation and freedom are the ultimate trend.Viewing from the perspectives of countries,the implementation of trade protectionism policies is not only determined by gains and losses but also by the judgment on decision-making of policy and degree.On this basis,this paper puts forward some countermeasures against protectionism from other countries.