中国有色金属工业经济预警系统研究

Study on economic early warning system for Chinese nonferrous metals industry

经济周期波动是不可抗拒的客观规律,在中国有色金属工业全面走向市场的今天,建立有色金属工业经济预警系统势在必行。本文在对国内外经济预警系统构建理论和方法充分研究的基础上,借鉴相关行业的预警经验,全面深入分析影响中国有色金属工业的国际国内因素,初步建立了适应中国有色金属工业实际情况的预警指标体系和预警模型。通过对有色金属工业运行态势初步分析与判断,给出了保证我国有色金属工业持续健康发展的政策建议。

As we all know that business cycle fluctuations is an irresistible objective law,so it is imperative to establish the Early Warning Systems（EWS） for Chinese non-ferrous metals industrial under circumstance that the Nonferrous Metals Industry of China becomes more and more market-oriented.In this article,the author fully analyses the domestic and international theory-construction and method of Early Warning System,learns the experience from the Early Warning System of related industries,and also made a comprehensive and deep analysis on the international and domestic factors of Chinese Nonferrous Metal Industry.As a conclusion,the author tries to set up an Early Warning Indicators and Early Warning System Model which will suit the actual situation of China＇s Nonferrous Metals Industry.For ensuring the sustained and healthy development of Chinese nonferrous metals industry,some policy recommendations will also be given on the base of a preliminary analysis and judgments on the run-state of the nonferrous metals industry.