碳关税征收对双边贸易的预期影响——基于中美两个碳经济大国的微观分析方法

The Expected Impact of Carbon Tariffs on the Sino-US Bilateral Trade:A Micro-economic Analysis Based on the Two Carbon Economic Powers

文章用微观经济分析方法,基于中美两个碳经济大国的视角分析了碳关税的征收对双边贸易的预期影响。分析结果为:美国征收碳关税,短期内会由于美国进口需求减少和其他不被施加碳关税国家的价格优势导致中国出口量下降;长期中出口商需要提高价格来补偿技术投入的支出,国际价格上涨将进一步导致需求降低,贸易量减少;同时碳关税征收将导致出口国贸易条件恶化,社会福利损失;而进口国可能由于贸易条件的改善在短期内获得收益。

In this paper,we use the method of micro-economic analysis to analyze the expected impact of carbon tariffs on the Sino-US bilateral trade.The results show that carbon tariffs will decrease China＇s net exports due to the reduced demand in USA and the other countries＇ price advantages.In the long term,the exporters need to raise prices to compensate for the expenditure.The higher international prices will further decrease the demand and reduce the trade.At the same time,carbon tariffs will result in the deterioration of China＇s terms of trade and social welfare loss.However,the importing country may obtain the short-term benefit from the improved terms of trade.