我国内外需失衡的原因探析——基于经济增长方式的研究视角

Study on the Reasons of Domestic and Foreign Demand Unbalance Based on the View of Economic Growth Pattern

文章从经济增长方式的视角分析我国内外需失衡的根本性原因。粗放型的经济增长方式使我国居民人均可支配收入增长缓慢,远落后于人均GDP的增长速度,导致我国内需不足。同时,引起我国投资和消费失衡,使我国过剩产品依赖于外需。为此,文章利用格兰杰因果关系检验对我国内外需失衡的原因进行了实证研究,结果表明在粗放型增长方式下生产规模的不断快速扩张是导致我国内外需失衡的原因,应该通过转变经济增长方式才能从根本上解决我国当前的内外需失衡问题。

In the view of economic growth pattern,this paper analyzes the reasons of domestic and foreign demand unbalance.The extensive economic growth mode in China leads to the slow growth of urban per-capita disposable income,which is far behind the per-capita GDP.Meanwhile,it also causes the unbalance of investment and consumption,which makes our country＇s excessive products rely on export.So it is believed that the extensive economic growth pattern leads to the unbalance of our domestic and foreign demand.In addition,it uses Granger causality test to provide evidences for the above analysis,which indicates that we need to change the pattern of economic growth so as to solve the problem of domestic and foreign demand unbalance in our country.