2004-2009年浙江省嘉善县梅毒流行特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of syphilis in Jiashan county,Zhejiang province,2004-2009

目的分析嘉善县2004-2009年梅毒的发病趋势和流行特征。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2004-2009年梅毒发病进行分析;应用灰色预测模型方法,建立梅毒预测模型方程公式,并对模型进行拟合,预测发病趋势。结果嘉善县2004-2009年梅毒年均发病率为33.96/10万,梅毒发病率从2004年的19.70/10万上升至2009年的54.34/10万;以流动人口较多及经济较发达的镇发病率最高,发病主要集中在20-39岁年龄段,占总发病的57.42%,职业以农民、工人为主;获得灰色预测模型方程^Y（t）=46.79e-0.20（t-1）-41.01。结论嘉善县梅毒发病呈逐年上升趋势,发病形势严峻,亟需采取综合性防制措施,有效控制梅毒流行。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of syphilis in Jiashan county from 2004 to 2009.Methods The epidemiological characteristics of syphilis were described and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method.The grey model was established to predict the incidences of syphilis and verified by the annual reported cases in the region.Results The average annual incidence rate of syphilis was 33.96/lakh from 2004 to 2009.The incidence rate of syphilis increased from 19.70/lakh to 54.34/lakh between the year of 2004 and 2009.The high incidence rate of syphilis was observed in economic better developed areas,where immigrant workers stayed for job opportunities.Syphilis was frequently diagnosed in peasants and workers.Most of the syphilis cases（57.42%） occurred in the residents aged 20~39 years.The grey prediction model was established as Y^（t）=46.79e-0.20（t-1）-41.01.Conclusion The incidence rate of syphilis has been increasing gradually in Jiashan couty since 2004.It is necessary to take comprehensive prevention measures in order to effectively control the syphilis epidemic.