某型发动机无失效数据的Bayes可靠性分析

BAYESIAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF ZERO FAILURE DATA OF A CERTAIN MODEL ENGINE

在定时截尾试验中，有时会遇到无失效数据，特别是在高可靠性、小样本问题中更容易产生无失效数据。对某型发动机的无失效数据，在失效概率服从不完全Ｂｅｔａ分布时，给出了失效概率的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计，并在引进失效信息后，给出了失效概率的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计和综合估计，从而可以得到该型发动机可靠度的估计。

In the time ended reliability tests, the situation of zero failure data happens sometimes, especially in high reliability and small sampling tests. The zero failure data research is a new field in recent years, but it is required urgently in practical projects, so the work has more theoretical and practical values. In the paper, for zero failure data of a certain model engine, at moment t , if the failure probability is quasi Beta distribution, the author gives the failure probability Bayesian estimation, and after introducing failure information, Bayesian estimation and synthesized estimation of failure probability are given out. Then the reliability estimation of this model engine can be obtained.