矿产资源评价中的核心问题

Critical issues in mineral resources appraisal

矿产资源评价是过去几十年里全球地质学家关注的重要领域。在过去的研究中,矿产资源评价的方法学及其相应的统计学技术在理论上取得了明显的进展,统计学技术或主观评估已经成为多元数据综合和资源潜力预测的通用方法。然而,这些方法所得出的估计结果或结论对于国家宏观政策制定、矿产资源管理、商业矿产勘探的实际效果和指导意义非常有限。影响矿产资源评价效果的很多问题还有待于进一步研究,新的基础理论问题需得到进一步解决。为此,就其中几个有关矿产资源评价的最为关键的问题进行了深入的探讨,包括矿产资源的随机性、内在的统计关系、矿产的稀有性、本征地质单元、资源经济转化等。就几个信息综合中的技术问题也做了较为系统的讨论,包括信息增强、空间连续性、数据综合及靶区圈定。最后提出了"动态模型区"的概念,试图为矿产资源评价指出一个新的思考方向。

Mineral resources appraisal has been an important research subject for geoscientists around the world in the past three decades. Significant progress has been made in development of statistical techniques and estimation methodologies for mineral resources. Integration of multiple data sets, either by experts or statistical methods, has become a common practice in estimation of mineral potentials. However, real effect of these methodologies is at best very limited in term of uses for government macro policy making, resource management, and mineral exploration in commercial sectors. Several major problems in data integration remain to be solved in order to achieve significant improvement in the effect of resource estimation. Some critical issues, considered being critical and fundamental in mineral resources appraisal, are addressed in this paper. Issues related to randomness of mineral endowment, intrinsic statistical relations, exceptionalness of ore, intrinsic geological units, and economic translation and truncation, are discussed in this paper. Moreover, a number of specific important technical issues in information synthesis are also identified as well, including information enhancement, spatial continuity, data integration and target delineation. Finally, a new concept of dynamic control areas is proposed for future development of quantification of mineral resources.