中国工业布局变动趋势及其主要影响因素研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Study on the Changing Trend of Industrial Distribution and Influential Factors in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文通过计算1952-2008年我国工业总产值地区变异系数,发现我国工业布局经历了"均衡—非均衡—收敛"的变动趋势。文章利用1980-2007年省际面板数据研究了影响工业布局变动趋势的主要因素,得出以下结论:区域政策是影响工业布局的重要因素,优惠政策可以促进地区工业发展;越高的投资水平,越有利于地区工业集聚;经济对外开放度和市场化程度的提高,对地区工业集聚也有显著正的影响;劳动力成本对工业布局也有重要的影响。这些结论对于缩小地区工业发展与经济差距有重要启示作用。

By calculating the regional variation coefficients of gross industrial output value from 1952 to 2008 in China, the paper finds out that the industrial distribution has experienced a changing trend from equilibrium, non-equilibrium to convergence. Based on therovincial panel data from 1980 to 2007, it analyzes the factors affecting the changing trend of industrial distribution, and arrives at a conclusion that regional policies have an important impact on industrial distribution and preferential policies can improve regional industrial development. And higher investment level can improve regional industrial agglomeration. The increase of economic openingp and marketization degree also have positive effects on regional industrial agglomeration. Labor costs also has important implications for the industrial distribution. These conclusions provide important inspiration to reduce the industrial development and economic disparity among regions.