城市化不同阶段能源消费的影响因素研究

The Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption under Different Stages of Urbanization

按照世界城市化演变规律可将中国城市化过程分为曲折发展、初期阶段和中期阶段三个阶段。本文通过协整分析认为:中国城市化和工业化是能源消费变动的原因,工业化是城市化的原因。不同城市化阶段对能源消费影响的差别在于:第一阶段能源消费增长主要受工业化驱动,而受城市化的影响较小;第二阶段能源消费主要受城市化影响很大,受工业化的影响较小;第三阶段城市化和工业化共同驱动能源消费的增长。

In accordance with the laws of the urbanization evolution in the world, the process of urbanization in China can be divided into three stages, namely tortuous development, early stage and mid-stage. Through cointegration analysis, the paper considers that urbanization and industrialization are the causes of changes in energy consumption, and industrialization is the cause of urbanization. The different determinants of energy consumption under different stages of urbanization is shown as follows： energy consumption growth is mainly driven by industrialization in the first stage; energy consumption is mainly affected by urbanization in the second stage; and urbanization and industrialization jointly drive the growth of energy consumption in the third stage.