北京市朝阳区大气污染与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列研究

Time-series Analysison Relationship between Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Chaoyang District,Beijing

目的探讨北京市朝阳区大气污染物二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)与居民每日死亡的相关性。方法 2004年1月—2008年9月的北京市朝阳区呼吸系统疾病、循环系统疾病、内分泌、营养和代谢疾病每日死亡人数数据源于朝阳区疾病预防控制中心,同时收集北京市日均SO2、NO2、PM10浓度和日均气温、相对湿度数据。采用广义相加模型(generalized additive model)分析SO2、NO2以及PM10与每日死亡的关系,并且控制日均气温、相对湿度的影响。结果大气SO2、NO2、PM10浓度每增加10μg/m3,分别导致朝阳区居民上述疾病每日死亡增加0.47%(95%CI:0.03%～0.91%),0.55%(95%CI:-0.02%～1.12%)和0.25%(95%CI:0.08%～0.42%)。结论北京市朝阳区大气SO2、PM10浓度可以对该区居民上述疾病每日死亡造成影响,NO2浓度对居民影响不明显。

Objective To study the relationship between daily concentration of SO2,NO2 and PM10 and daily mortality in Chaoyang district,Beijing.Methods The time-series data of daily mortality of Chaoyang district,Beijing were collected from Chaoyang District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,and daily concentrations of SO2,NO2 and PM10,the data of daily average temperature and relative humidity were also collected.The time-series analysis was conducted by using Poisson regression with Generalized Additive Model（GAM）.Results An increase of 10% μg/m3 of SO2,NO2 and PM10 could increase the total mortality by 0.47%（95%CI：0.03%-0.91%）,0.55%（95%CI：-0.02%-1.12%）and 0.25%（95%CI：0.08%-0.42%）respectively;It showed that the air PM10,SO2 of monitoring levels had an adverse effect on the daily mortality of the local residents in Chaoyang district.But the daily concentration of air NO2 was not associated with the daily population mortality statistically.Conclusion The increase of air pollution is a risk factor for the daily mortality of population in Beijing.