我国货币政策有效性分析

The Efficient Analysis on Our Monetary Policy

货币政策的制定和实施是宏观经济稳定运行的基本保障,我国连续多年的经常项目和资本、金融项目顺差积累了巨额的外汇储备,央行被迫增发基础货币致使通胀预期上升,货币政策在内外失衡时的作用受到影响。本文运用回归分析和VAR模型验证货币政策对宏观经济的影响,从央行资产负债表结构变动实证检验外汇储备增加、央行货币冲销对货币政策的作用效果,最后基于实证检验结果提出增强我国货币政策有效性的措施。

The formulation and implement of monetary policy is basic to a stable mics. Due to the accumulation of current account, capital account and financial account in these years, we formed a huge foreign exchange reserves, therefore, the PBC was forced to increase the offering of basic currency which resulted in inflation. It has been affected of the monetary policy. The article examined the influence upon the macroeconomics by monetary policy on Regression Analysis and VAR model. From the balance sheet of the PBC, we verified the effects towards the monetary policy by foreign exchange reserve increasing and currency merging. At last, we gave the suggestions to enhance our monetary policy based on the empirical analysis results.