1998年中国石油进出口贸易状况分析

Review of China' s Oil Imports and Exports in 1998

1998年中国石油进口全面下降,原油与成品油合计进口4906万吨,比1997年减少17％。其中原油进口量从3547万吨减少到2732万吨,成品油进口量从2379.33万吨减少到2173.99万吨。进口原油的结构转向轻质含硫原油,对中东石油的依赖加深。在成品油进口中,海关统计的柴油进口量大幅度减少,但上半年至少有300万吨走私柴油进入国内市场,韩国在中国进口燃料油和柴油市场中的份额进一步上升。1998年中国石油出口降到15年来的低点,由1985年的3003万吨和1997年的1983万吨降至1560万吨。成品油出口量也比上年锐减24％。原油与成品油合计,净进口2922万吨,比1997年减少13.7％。经济增长减慢和工业企业经济效益降低,使国内石油产品需求增长减缓;成品油走私造成炼油厂削减加工量,是导致进口原油减少的主要原因。打击成品油走私成为关系到石油石化业生存和发展的重大任务。为了提高炼油业的装置利用率,改善经济效益,多进口原油、少进口成品油可能成为今后中国石油进口的必然趋势。

1998 saw an across-the-board decline in China' s oil imports. Imports of crude and oil products totaled 49.06 Mt, 17% down on 1997; crude imports decreased from 35.47 Mt to 27.32 Mt, while product imports slipped from 23.79 Mt to 21.74 Mt. Sour light oil imports increased their share of imported crude, raising dependency on Middle East crude. Oil product imports recorded by customs fell sharply, but at least 3 Mt of smuggled oil flowed into the domestic market in the first half of 1998. Korea' s share of China' s imported gas oil and fuel oil market rose further. China' s crude exports decreased in 1998 to 15.6 Mt from 19.83 Mt in 1997 and 30.03 Mt in 1985, hitting the lowest level for 15 years. Meanwhile, oil product exports dropped by 24%. Taking crude and oil products together, net imports were 29.22 Mt, 13.7% less than in the previous year. The slowdown in economic growth and the poor profit situation of industrial enterprises reduced domestic demand for oil products. In addition, the smuggling of oil products was a major reason for the drop in crude imports. Therefore, cracking down on oil smuggling has become a crucial task for the survival and growth of the oil and petrochemical industry. To improve the capacity utilization rate of domestic refineries, China will probably import more crude while reducing oil product imports.