我国液化石油气进口回顾与展望

Review & Outlook: China' s LPG Imports

我国液化石油气(LPG)进口量在经历了1997年的增长停滞之后,1998年较快地恢复了增长。1998年全年LPG进口量比1997年跃增33％,从上年的358万吨猛增到477万吨。进口量大幅度增长的主要原因是:(1)国际市场LPG价格下降使得进口LPG成本降低。1998年进口LPG平均到岸价约为每吨170美元,而1997年为236美元。(2)南方沿海数座储运设施相继投入运转,使增加LPG进口成为可能。我国进口LPG消费市场的重心正在逐渐由南向北,即向华东和长江中上游地区扩展转移,江苏、浙江和福建有望成为我国LPG进口的新的热点地区,但1998年广东省LPG进口仍位居全国第一。我国进口LPG总量中仍有46％来自沙特阿拉伯,但来自伊朗和阿联酋的LPG正迅速增加。由于我国陆上大型LPG冷冻库陆续建成投产,预计来自中东的LPG进口量将继续大幅度增长。

China's LPG imports soared by 33% in 1998, rising to 4.77 Mt from 3.58 Mt in the previous year. There were two main reasons for the increase: (1) Lower LPG prices in the international oil market reduced the cost of LPG imports. In 1998, the average CIF price for LPG was about $170 per ton, compared with $236 per ton in 1997. (2) A number of new LPG storage and transportation facilities came into operation in southern coastal regions, making it possible to import more LPG. The main consumption area for imported LPG is expanding from the southern to eastern China and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces are expected to see a sharp rise in LPG imports. In 1998, Guangdong province remained the largest LPG importer in the country. Some 46% of China' s total LPG imports come from Saudi Arabia, but Iran and the UAE are rapidly increasing their share. The construction and commissioning of some large-scale onshore LPG storage facilities should result in LPG imports from the Middle East continuing to rise rapidly.