甘肃省入境客流量预测模型构建研究

Study on the Establishment of Inbound Tourist Flow Forecast Models in Gansu Province

入境客流量预测是入境旅游产业研究的基础,科学有效的入境客流量预测是推动入境旅游产业持续健康发展的关键。本文利用SPSS统计分析软件提供的相关数据分析方法,针对甘肃省1998～2007年入境客流量的变化进行了系统的实证研究,总结出两种不同类型的入境客流量定量预测模型,并对未来一定时期内甘肃省入境客流的发展规模和增长速度做了预测和分析。研究结果表明:与传统的定性和简单的测算方式相比,本研究构建的两个客流量预测模型均有较高的精度和良好的适应性。采用该模型能够科学有效地预测甘肃省中长期的入境客流量,准确把握未来一定时期内甘肃省入境客流的增长趋势和速度,从而为甘肃省入境客流的科学开发提供依据。

Forecast for inbound tourist flow is the basis for the study of inbound tourism industry.Scientific and effective forecast is the key to promoting the sustainable and sound development of inbound tourism industry.With the relevant data analysis method of SPSS statistical analysis software,the paper makes systematic and empirical study that aims at the changes of inbound tourist flow from 1998 to 2007 and summarizes two different types of quantitative forecast models for inbound tourist flow.It also makes forecast and analysis of the development scale and growth speed for inbound flow in Gansu province for the future period of time.The study results show that compared with traditional quantitative and simple ways of measurement,the study establishes two tourist flow models with higher accuracy and good adaptability.By adopting these two models that can scientifically and effectively forecast mid-long term inbound tourist flow,we can accurately grasp the growth trend and speed of inbound tourist flow in Gansu province for a certain period of time in future,which will provide basis for scientific development of inbound tourist flow in Gansu province.