西藏南部河谷气候变化趋势及预测——以江孜站为例

Trend and Prediction of Climate Change in Southern Tibet Valley——Taking Gyangze Meteorological Station for Example

利用西藏江孜气象站1957-2006年气温、降水等资料,分析了近50年来西藏南部(下称藏南)河谷地区的气候变化,并对未来气候变化的可能趋势做了预测。分析表明:藏南河谷的气温在过去50年间呈明显的上升趋势,升温速率较全球平均升温速率偏高,主要表现为日最低气温的上升,降水呈波动下降变化;在21世纪的前期,藏南河谷气温上升、降水增加,但气温变化较降水更为明显,故湿润度呈波动减小。2030年代起由于温度升高、降水减少,呈现出趋于暖干化趋势,将预测结果与2007-2008年的实际观测资料相比较,预测结果与实际值接近。因此,预测结果基本可信。

Using the temperature and precipitation data at Gyangze meteorological station in Tibet from 1957 to 2006,the characteristics of climate change in the Southern Tibet Valley have been analyzed.The possible trend of future climate change has been predicted,too.The result shows that the trend of annual mean temperature increases remarkably in the Southern Tibet Valley in the past 50 years,the increasing speed of daily minimum temperature is more obvious than that of the mean temperature;and the warming rate is faster than that of the global average temperature,precipitation changes are fluctuations with decreasing slightly.The results also show that the climate will turn warm and dry in the future,the trend of turning warm and dry is remarkably during 2032-2056,and precipitation will decrease during 2032-2056.A comparison between the prediction and observation data from 2007 to 2008 shows that they are very similar,so the prediction is basically credible.