中国风速概率分布及在风能评估中的应用

THE PROBABILITY DISTRUBUTION OF WIND SPEED AND ITS APPLICATION IN ESTIMATION OF WIND ENERGY IN CHINA

运用Weibull分布模型研究了我国日平均风速的概率分布、平均风能密度以及风能可利用时数,并比较了此模型与正态分布拟合风速概率分布的区别。结果表明:Weibull分布比正态分布能更好地表示出风速概率分布的偏度和峰度。我国平均风能密度春季最大,夏季最小。山东半岛、闽浙沿海及岛屿地带的平均风能密度最大;新疆和甘肃的北部地区、内蒙古中东部和东北地区次之;塔里木盆地、四川盆地、云贵高原以及两广的内陆地区的平均风能密度最小。风能可利用时数与平均风能密度的地理分布和季节差异定性上一致。

Based on the daily average wind speed data of 557 stations over China from 1965 to 2004, probability distribution of daily average wind speed, average energy density and available time in mainland of China have been studied by using Weibull distribution model, and a comparison between using Weibull and normal distribution to imitate the measured data have been made. The results showed that the method of Weibull distribution is better to describe the skewness and kurtosis of wind speed probability than normal distribution. The average wind power density of China is the greatest in spring and the smallest in summer. In the coastland and islands of Zhejiang and Fujian, Shandong Peninsula, the average wind power density is greater than 120W/m^2 ; the north-central region of Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, north of Xinjiang and Gansu is fietween 60-120W/m^2 ; the average wind power density of Sichuan Basin,Yunnan-Guizhou Pla- teau, the Tarim Basin and inland of Guangdong and Guangxi is below 8W/m^2. The geographical distribution and seasonal variation of available hours of wind is consistent with the average wind power density qualitatively.