外贸促增长中的中国服务贸易与货物贸易共生模式——基于1993—2008年时序数据的DEA检验

Symbiosis Model of Chinese Service Trade and Merchandise Tradein the Promotion of Economic Growth——DEA Test Based on Time Series Data of 1993—2008

对对外贸易促进中国经济增长的前提条件——服务贸易与货物贸易和谐共生发展之原理进行了定性分析。运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对中国1993—2008年时序数据进行实证检验,梳理出中国服务贸易与货物贸易特有的共生模式:只有实现服务贸易与货物贸易、出口与进口的和谐共生发展,尤其是服务出口贸易的快速发展,并使它们各自保持适当的规模,才能使对外贸易真正成为中国经济增长的"发动机"。针对中国现行外贸战略,提出了"三慢一快,结构换代"的调整建议。

In this article we carry out qualitative analysis of the prerequisite for the promotion of foreign trade to China＇s economic growth.The prerequisite is the coordinated development of service trade and merchandise trade.Data envelopment analysis（DEA） is used to empirically test China＇s annual time series data between 1993 and 2008.A unique symbiotic model of service trade and merchandise trade is worked out,that is,only harmonious coexistences of service trade and merchandise trade,and export（especially service export） and import can make foreign trade an ＇engine＇ of China＇s economic growth.All these components are controlled within an appropriate scale.Finally,we make a recommendation of ＂three-slow-one-fast and structure upgrade＂ for China＇s foreign trade development.