中美两国经济实力变迁的预测

Forcasting the Change in Economic Strength of China and America

中国和美国是当今世界影响最重大的两个大国,对它们经济实力的变化做预测意义重大。文章独创的相对数预测模型,克服了一般预测模型需要众多假定前提条件以及绝对数受众多因素影响的严重缺陷,结果非常显著地通过了统计检验,模型具有高精度的预测能力。预测结果显示中国经济总量将在2031年超越美国,但人民生活水平才达到当时世界的平均水平,在2049年可达到当时世界平均水平的2倍,中国要达到美国的生活水平则需要更漫长的时间。

China and the united states are the most important major powers in the world. It is significant to forecast their changes of eco- nomic strength. In the paper, the author creats the prediction model which overcome its serious flaw that is need a member of a hypothet- ical proposition. The results of statistical test show that the model predicts result precisely. The forecasting results indicated that the GDP of China will surpass that of America in 2031. But people＇s living standards of China only is the world average levels at that time. The people＇s living standards of China will is up to double of the world average levels in 2049. It takes a long time that people＇s living standards of China reach that of America.