我国商业银行整体操作风险评估分析——基于损失分布的蒙特卡罗模拟方法

the overall operational risk assessment of Chinese commercial banks——Based on the loss distribution of the Monte Carlo simulation

金融业的全球化竞争和金融管制的放松,使商业银行面临的操作风险不断上升。我国商业银行操作风险形成的内因和外因有很多,通过利用损失分布法对我国商业银行操作风险进行实证分析认为,目前,我国商业银行操作风险还处在可控的范围之中。但随着商业银行业务的快速增长,资本金不够的隐忧仍然存在。在未来要加强数据搜集整理,建立我国自身的操作风险损失数据库;要选择适合自身的操作风险度量方法;建立有效、科学、实时的商业银行操作风险预警系统。

With global competition of the financial sector and financial deregulation, commercial banks are facing increasing opera- tional risk. Commercial bank in China has many internal and external causes in forming operational risk, by the use of the loss dis- tribution method to do our empirical analysis, it shows that commercial banks＇ operational risk is still in control of the scope at pres- ent. But with the rapid growth of commercial banking, capital is still not enough to worry. In the future, we should set up our own operational risk loss database and choose our own operational risk measurement methods; by the establishment of effective, science, real - time commercial bank operational risk early warning system to improve the prevention of operational risks.