摘要
应急物资的采购发生在未来某个时间,但是未来的采购价格是不确定的,政府和供应商都希望降低这种不确定性。文章考虑在应急物资的采购中引入期权合约,在签订期权合约和不签订合约两种情况下,分析供应商利润和政府成本的变化,建立应急物资采购定价模型,并运用遗传算法求解模型。结论表明,以期权合约的方式进行应急物资采购,不仅能够避免未来采购价格不确定性的影响,而且能够使供应商利润增加,政府采购成本减少,即期权机制是有效的。最后通过灵敏度分析,分析期权合约的有效期和无风险利率变化对期权价格参数的影响。
The procurement of Emergency Material happens in a certain time in the future,however the price of procurement is not certain at that time.The government and suppliers would like to reduce this uncertainty.Option contract is considered in the procurement of Emergency Material by studying the change of the suppliers＇profits and government＇s cost based on the two cases about signing the option contract and non-contract occasion,and then establishing the Emergency Material procurement-pricing model by applying the genetic algorithm.It shows that the procurement of Emergency Material by option contract can avoid the effect of the uncertainty of the procurement price,and in this procurement way,the profits of the suppliers increase and the cost of the government decrease.Scilicet,options mechanism is effective.Finally,we analyze the influence on the validity of option contract and the risk-free interest rate change on the option price parameters through the sensitivity judgment.
出处
《华东理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2010年第4期54-59,共6页
Journal of East China University of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition
关键词
应急物资
采购定价
期权
遗传算法
emergency material
procurement-pricing
option contract
genetic algorithm
