利用景气指数对1994～2006年全国土地市场进行定量评估

Quantitative Appraisement on the Land Market of China Based on Prosperity Index Method During 1994-2006

基于市场景气分析的基础理论,构建了土地市场景气评价指标体系,应用景气指数方法对我国土地市场景气进行了实证研究。结果表明,1994年以来,我国土地市场前期阶段(1994～2002年)运行比较平稳,除1999年土地市场偏冷外,其他均处于正常状态;后期阶段(2003～2006年),土地市场波动十分显著,偏热与偏冷状态交替出现,这是国家宏观调控政策、经济运行机制等因素的综合反映。

In this paper,the theories and overall frameworks of land market prosperity analysis were built,the prosperity index method was introduced and applied to the research of land market prosperity analysis in China from 1994 to 2006.The results have indicated that the operation status of land market in our country has been generally good since 1994.Comparatively speaking,the land market on the former stage（from 1994 to 2002） operated very stably,except that it has been depression in 1999,in others years the land market has in the normal state.On the latter stage（2003-2006） the land market fluctuated very obviously,it has been heat in 2003,2005,and cool in 2004,and has been normal until 2006.All of these mentioned above are the driving results of a series of macroeconomic control policies,including many land management policies and economic development measures,etc.