中国生育率转变的人口自效应研究

A Study of Self Demographic Effects of Chinese Population Transition

生育率变动的规模效应将长期存在;生育率变动的年龄结构效应将在正效应和负效应交替波动中逐渐收敛,最终趋于消逝,不如规模效应存续时间那么久远。我国人口发展战略应始终兼顾规模和结构两种效应。我国未来人口老化的加深、人口高"红利"的消失、人口高"负债"的形成,是以往和现在多个时期、多个阶段、多种因素促成的。就生育率而言,它包括以往过高的生育率,也包括后来较低的生育率。当前及未来一段时间,我国各地区共同的任务应该是创造条件进入稳定的适度低生育水平。

Quantitatively self demographic effects of Chinese population transition show that demographic effects on quantity will persist for a long time,and the positive or negative effects on age-structure will undulate and wither away in the end.The Chinese population transition and the intended low fertility in the future will jointly bring on the level of age increase,demographic dividend change,and the other demographic variables.As a Chinese population strategy,the attention should be paid to self demographic effects on quantity and age-structure,and the moderate low-fertility should be kept in China at present and in the future.