真值图降水预报方法初探

Preliminary Study on the Precipitation Forecast Method Using True Value Map

利用巴楚县气象站1970～2000年6～8月逐日实测地面降水资料、水汽压、24h变压、气温、相对湿度、最高气温、最低气温资料,从中发现11:00水汽压、14:0024h变压、17:0024h变压、17:00气温、17:00相对湿度、17:00最高气温减最低气温与每次降水的出现有着极为密切的关系,并通过使用真值图预报方法来预报未来24h有无降水,经试报实践证明,预报准确率达75%。

Based on the daily measured surface meteorological data, including precipitation, vapor pressure, 24-hour changing pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, maximum temperature and minimum temperature at Weather Station of Bachu County from June to August from 1970 to 2000, it was found that the occurrence of each precipitation had a close relationship with vapor pressure at 11：00, 24-hour changing pressure at 14：00,24-hour changing pressure at 17：00, air temperature at 17：00, relative humidity at 17：00, the difference between the max- imum temperature and the minimum temperature at 17：00. The precipitation in the future 24 hours can be forecasted by using the true value map method. The practice proved that the accuracy rate of the forecast reached 75%.