南疆区域农业投入产出模型与农民增产增收对策研究

Regional Agricultural Input-output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang

介绍了南疆农业投入与产出现状:一是农业投入力度不够,农业现代化水平较低;二是化肥使用量过大,环境遭到严重破坏;三是水资源紧张,维系生态环境平衡压力巨大;四是南疆农业产生的经济效益、社会效益并不明显,农业仍是弱势产业;五是南疆经济的主体仍是农业经济,南疆地区整体经济发展水平滞后。选取阿克苏地区为代表,依据2002～2007年投入与产出相关数据,采用主成分分析法,建立了南疆区域农业投入产出模型。在对模型求解过程中采用了DPS软件,利用Eviews软件对模型加以修正和检验,进而对所得结果的经济意义进行分析和评价,并对相关模型进行了补充说明。针对现阶段严重制约南疆地区农业经济产出的情况,提出了相应的对策建议:一是调整农业用地结构,充分提高土地利用率;二是加大农业投入力度,实现农业现代化;三是合理利用水资源,维系生态环境平衡;四是增强农业投保意识,尽量减少风险损失;五是走特色农产品产业化路线,实现剩余劳动力的转移。

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjang, China is introduced, such as lack of agricuhural input, low level of agricultural modernization, excessive fertilizer use, serious damage of environment, shortage of water resources, tremendous pressure on ecological balance, insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang, agriculture remaining a weak industry, agri- cultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang, and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang. Taking the Aksu area as an example, according to the input and output data in the years 2002 - 2007, input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis. DPS software is used in the process of solving the model. Then, Eviews soft- ware is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained, and to make ad- ditional explanations of the relevant model. Since the agricuhural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present, the following countermeasures are put forward, such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land, improving the utilization ratio of land, lncreas ing agricultural input, realizing agricultural modernization, rationally utilizing water resources, maintaining eeo-environmental balance, enhan- cing the awareness of agricultural insurance, minimizing the risk and loss, taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural prod- ucts , and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.