基于因子分析法的黑龙江商品粮基地区域经济综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation on the Regional Economy of Commodity Grain Base in Heilongjiang Province Based on Factor Analysis

以黑龙江商品粮基地所属13个地区为研究对象,选取地区GDP(X1)、人均GDP(X2)、第三产业总值(X3)、财政收入(X4)、城镇固定资产投资(X5)、职工平均工资(X6)、工业总产值(X7)、农林牧渔总产值(X8)、社会消费品零售额(X9)这9项指标,建立了区域经济评价指标体系。根据2006～2008年的《黑龙江省统计年鉴》中各指标的3年平均值作为分析数据,采用因子分析方法进行降维,建立回归模型进行综合评价。结果表明,黑龙江商品粮基地的各地区经济发展极不均衡,根据综合得分排序和实际情况,把这13个地区分为4类:第一类为哈尔滨;第二类为大庆;第三类为齐齐哈尔、绥化、牡丹江、佳木斯;第四类为鸡西、双鸭山、黑河、伊春、七台河、鹤岗、大兴安岭。并为各类地区的后续发展提出了建议。

With 13 regions in the commodity grain base of Heilongjiang Province as the research objects,nine indexes including regional GDP （X1） ,per capita GDP （X2） ,total value of the tertiary industry（X3） ,financial income （X4） ,urban fixed asset investment（X5） ,average wage （X6） ,total industrial output value（X7） ,total output value of crop farming,forestry,fishery and animal husbandry（X8） and retail sales of consumer goods（X9） are selected to build the evaluation index system of regional economy.According to the average value of each index in Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook during 2006-2008,the factor analysis method is adopted to reduce the dimension and build regression model so as to conduct comprehensive evaluation.Results show that the regional economy in the commodity grain base is extremely overbalanced, according to the rankings of comprehensive score and actual situation,these 13 regions are classified into four types：the first type is Harbin, the second is Daqing,the third includes Qiqihar,Suihua,Mudanjiang and Jiamusi; the fourth involves Jixi,Shuangyashan,Heihe,Yichun, Qitaihe,Hegang and Da Hinggan Ling.Some suggestions about the future development of each region are also put forward.