湖南省农村居民消费函数研究

Research on the Consumption Function of Rural Residents in Hunan Province

在文献回顾的基础上,依据1978～2009年《湖南省统计年鉴》、《中国统计年鉴》相关消费数据,选取湖南省农村居民人均收入、人均生活消费支出和人均储蓄存款余额3个指标,采用广义差分法,运用EVIEWS6.0对湖南农村居民人均居民消费与人均纯收入进行单位根及协整检验,并结合莫迪格利安尼消费理论、杜森贝里消费理论、凯恩斯的绝对收入理论拟合湖南省农村消费函数模型,找出了适合湖南省农村消费函数模型。结果表明,凯恩斯的绝对收入消费函数模型通过统计检验和计量检验,相对收入假设消费函数模型、生命周期消费函数模型未通过检,绝对收入消费理论比较适合描述湖南省农村消费与收入的相关关系。针对湖南省农村居民边际消费倾向较低的现状,提出了扩大农村居民消费需求的建议:一是发展特色经济,提升农村居民收入水平;二是完善农村保障制度,稳定农村居民消费信心;三是改善农村流通制度。

Based on literature review, according to relevant consumption data in Hunan Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook during 1978 -2009, the thesis selects three indexes involving the average income per rural resident, per capita living expenses of rural resi- dents and per capita savings to conduct the unit root and co-integration test on the consumption and net income per rural residents in Hunan Province by adopting the generalized difference method and EVIEWS6.0, then according to the Modigliani Hypothesis of Consumption, Duesenberry Hypothesis of Consumption and Keynes Absolute Income Hypothesis, the thesis makes a fitting of Hunan consumption function model, aiming to find out the consumption function model suitable to Hunan Province. The results show that, Keynesian consumption function based On Absolute Income Hypothesis passes the statistical test and econometric test, while the consumption function model based on Relative Income Hypothesis and that based on Life Cycle Hypothesis do not, which proves that the consumption function model based on Absolute In- come Hypothesis is better suited for describing the relations between rural consumption and income in Hunan Province. Taking into account the low marginal propensity of consumption of the rural residents in Hunan Province, the thesis proposes to expand consumption demand of rural residents： firstly, developing characteristic economy and improving the income level of rural residents; secondly, perfecting the social security system in rural areas and maintaining the consumption confidence of rural residents ; thirdly, ameliorating the circulation system.