干旱内陆河流域土地利用变化的人文驱动因子分析——以甘肃省酒泉市为例

Study on human driving forces in land-use change in arid inland river basins——A case study of Jiuquan City

对甘肃省酒泉市近15年的土地利用变化情况进行分析。动态模型表明:农用地总体在减少;牧草地减幅较大;耕地有增加的趋势,这不同于其他省市;林地增幅较耕地大;建设用地中居民点及工矿用地和交通用地增加最为显著;未利用地有明显增加的趋势。运用主成分分析法对土地利用变化的驱动因子进行定性和定量分析,结果表明:人口因子、经济因子和技术因子是酒泉市土地利用发生变化的主要人文驱动因子,最后运用多元线性回归模型对农用地、建设用地进行了预测。

In this paper,we analyzed land-use change in Jiuquan city near 15 years.Dynamic model showed that：agricultural lands was overall reduction;grasslands reduced rapidly;cultivated land had the increase tendency,this was opposite with other regions;woodlands kept increasing;there was the most significant increase in construction lands,including mining lands,settlements and traffic lands;unused lands was growing.Using Principal Component Analysis the qualitative and the quantitative analysis about the driving factors of land-use change was carried on.Results showed that population growth and the development of urbanization,economic industrial development and agricultural technology enhancement were the main driving forces for land-use change.Using Multiple Linear Regression Model agricultural lands and construction lands were forecasted.