最优通货膨胀与经济增长——1980～2008年实证分析

Optimal Inflation and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis on 1980～2008

将通货膨胀与经济增长关系模型化,建立了说明中国经济增长与通货膨胀关系的模型,并以宏观经济数据对该模型作了实证分析。主要结论:如果本年和上一年的通货膨胀率都为零,则我国实际的、可持续的年经济增长率为10%左右,其中3.5个百分点的增长来自于经济自身增长惯性;我国最优通货膨胀率约为5%,对应经济增长率为11%左右。

I this paper,The relationship between inflation and economic growth will be modeled.Using macroeconomic data,The author made an empirical analysis of the model.The main conclusions are： If this year and last year＇s inflation rate is zero,then the growth of GDP will be about 10%,of which 3.5 percentage points of the growth comes from the growth of economic self-inertia;opyimal inflation rate inChina is about 5%,the corresponding GDP growth rate is around 11%.