长江上游水土流失重点防治区滑坡泥石流预警系统减灾成效评价

Effect Evaluation of Landslide and Debris Flow Early-warning System in Control Areas of Soil and Water Loss in Upper Reaches of Yangtze River

自1991年长江上游水土流失重点防治区滑坡、泥石流预警系统建立以来,取得了巨大的预警成效。介绍了预警系统的建设历程及运行模式,主要从减灾的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益方面对滑坡泥石流预警系统的减灾成效作了评价。对于减灾的经济效益,主要通过投资的保护比(投资的土地保护比、投资的居民生命保护比和投资的固定资产保护比)和投资的减损比(投资的经济减损比和投资的人员伤亡减损比)来进行评价。预警系统投资保护比中,投资的土地保护比达15.11km2/万元,投资的居民生命安全保护比达40人/万元,投资的固定资产保护比为40.0～93.3;预警系统投资减损比中,投资的经济减损比为3.63,投资的人员伤亡减损比达5.69人/万元。相关评价数据和事例表明,该预警系统所取得的成效是十分显著的,应进一步加快预警的建设和发展。

Great effects have been achieved since 1991 when the landslide and debris flow early-warning system in the control areas of siol and water loss in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was established.Construction process and operation mode of the system are introduced.Effects of the system are evaluated according to economic,social,and ecological effects it brings.Economical effect is evaluated according to protection ratio and loss ratio of investment.To protection ratio,land protection ratio is 15.11 km2 per 104 yuan and resident life protection ratio is 40.0 persons per 104 yuan.Moreover,fixed assets protection ratio is from 40.0 to 93.3.To loss ratio of investment,economical loss ratio is 3.63 and casualty loss ratio is 5.69 persons per 104 yuan.Correlative evaluating data and instances show that the achieved effects of the system are remarkable and its construction and development should be further enhanced.