世界天然气格局的变化和中国的机遇

Changes in World NG Market Landscape and Opportunities for China

近年来世界天然气产、销和国际贸易格局发生了重大变化。在经济衰退的影响下,2009年世界天然气年产量和消费量出现2.41%和2.34%的下降;但国际贸易量却持续增长,2007～2009年年均增长率6.28%,其中LNG贸易有更快的发展,其灵活的销售策略和降低现货价在许多地区挤占了管输出口的市场份额。在经济衰退的恢复期和/或天然气供应充足或过剩时期气与煤的比价较为接近,这为气代煤创造了条件。新兴经济体,特别是中国、印度及周围的东亚、南亚地区占世界天然气消费量的份额日趋加大。1999～2009年的10年间,中国天然气产量、消费量年均增长率分别为12.95%和13.91%,印度分别为4.59%和7.53%。金融危机促进了世界经济中心向东亚转移,天然气发展更趋均衡、多中心化的进程将更快。亚太地区,特别是中国、印度的天然气生产、消费和国际贸易在今后也将获得更快的发展。页岩气产量的持续快速增长不仅影响着近年来的天然气国际贸易,亦将对世界天然气格局产生更深远的影响。这些为中国天然气大发展带来了新机遇。按照框架性预测的两个方案,预计2015年中国天然气消费量将分别约为2400×108m3和2500×108m3,需国内供应皆为1500×108m3,进口分别为900×108m3和1000×108m3。2015年国内常规气层气产量要达到1300×108m3或1350×108m3,两种情况下所对应的2010～2015年年均增长率分别为9.81%和9.12%。除管输进口以外,2015年需要有600×108～800×108m3的LNG进口。从国内对策来讲,除了加强勘探开发,特别要关注天然气上中下游的协调发展和LNG系统工程的提前部署。关于进口,应重视天然气进口的广义多元化,在进口采买中将多种长期合同、意向性协议和短期现货交易灵活结合起来;加强国际合作;建设完整的配套体系。

In recent years,dramatic changes have taken place in the world＇s natural gas market landscape,in terms of production,marketing and international trade.Affected by the economic recession,the world＇s natural gas production and consumption dropped by 2.41% and 2.34% respectively in 2009.However,the natural gas international trade has been growing continuously,at a rate of 6.28% per year from 2007 to 2009.LNG trade is gaining speed.With its flexible marketing tactic and lower spot price,LNG has snatched portions of shares of piped gas in the export market in many areas.During economic recovery and/or the period in which natural gas supply is abundant or exceeds demand,the prices of natural gas are close to those of coal,creating conditions for natural gas replacing coal.Emerging economies,particularly China,India and their neighboring East Asian and South Asian regions,represent an increasing share of the world＇ s natural gas consumption.From 1999 to 2009,China＇ s natural gas production and consumption grew by 12.95% and 13.91% per year respectively,while the percentages with India are 4.59% and 7.53%.The financial crisis has pushed the world＇s economic hub to move towards East Asia at a faster speed.Natural gas development has been more balanced geographically and a multi-center landscape will take shape at a faster pace.Natural gas production,consumption and foreign trade in the Asia Pacific Region,particularly in China and India,will grow faster.The sustained fast growth of shale gas production has not only affected the international trade of natural gas in recent years but has also had a more far-reaching effect on the world＇s natural gas market landscape.All these have created new opportunities for the massive development of natural gas in China.Under two framework scenarios,China＇ s natural gas consumption will reach some 2400 ×108m3 and 2500 ×108m3 by 2015 respectively.To meet this demand,domestic production should supply 1500×108m3 of gas in both scenarios and 900×108m3 and 1000×108m3 of imported gas are needed in the two scenarios respectively.By 2015,gas output from domestic conventional gas reservoirs should reach 1300×108m3 or 1350×108m3 and the annual growth rates from 2010-2015 for the two scenarios are 9.81% and 9.12% respectively.Apart from importing gas via pipeline,China will need to import 600×108-800×108m3 of LNG in 2015.As for domestic policies,in addition to strengthening exploration and development,special attention should be paid to the harmonious development of the upstream,midstream and downstream sectors of the natural gas industry as well as the deployment of LNG infrastructure in advance.On the import side,attention should be paid to the diversification of natural gas imports and the various long-term contracts,agreements of intent and short-term spot transactions should be combined in a flexible way in securing import sources.In addition,international cooperation should be strengthened and a complete supporting system should be established.