太阳能发电的普及与前景

The Deployment and Prospect of Solar Power Facilities

太阳能发电是摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,减少温室气体排放的重要手段之一。太阳能发电潜力巨大,按照理想状况,2100年世界能源需求的64%可由太阳能提供。2009年世界太阳能发电装机容量达6.43GW,产值380亿美元。同年世界太阳能电池产量达到9.34GW,太阳能电池生产能力约20GW。中国在结晶硅太阳能电池和结晶硅太阳能电池组件的生产上占有绝对优势,2009年底中国7大太阳能电池生产企业年生产能力合计达到4GW。西方跨国化工、石油公司纷纷进入太阳能发电领域,其中日本企业表现尤为突出。太阳能电池可分为结晶系、薄膜系、多接合系、有机系等。目前的主流是原料采用硅的结晶系(单晶硅、多晶硅),市场使用最多的是结晶硅型太阳能电池。薄膜系太阳能电池提高效率和降低成本的余地较大,CIS型市场潜力巨大,有机半导体型、色素增感型实用化尚需时日。降低成本是太阳能发电产业自立的关键。太阳能发电技术开发可分为3个方面:实用化的结晶硅太阳能电池和薄膜太阳能电池等;可大幅降低成本的色素增感、有机薄膜等新型太阳能电池;太阳能发电装置的技术开发评价、市场化评价等。

Utilizing solar energy to generate electricity is one of the effective approaches to weaning us off fossil fuels and to reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases.Solar power generation has enormous potential.Under ideal conditions,by 2100,64% of the world＇s energy demand will be met by solar energy.In 2009,the global installed solar power generating capacity reached 6.43GW and the industry＇s output value hit US$38 billion.In the same year,the global solar cell output reached 9.34GW and the world＇s solar cell production capacity stood at around 20GW.China is now a dominant producer of crystalline silicon solar cells and their modules.At the end of 2009,China＇s 7 major solar cell producers had a combined production capacity of 4GW.A host of multinational chemical and oil companies in the west have entered the solar power generation sector and Japanese enterprises＇ performance is especially impressive.Solar cells can be grouped into crystalline series,film series,multi-junction series and organic series.By far,the most prevalent material for solar cells is crystalline silicon（monocrystalline silicon or polycrystalline silicon） and the most common solar cells in the market are crystalline silicon solar cells.Thin-film cells offer large room for raising efficiency and reducing costs;CIS cells have a solid market prospect;organic semiconductor and dye-sensitized solar cells are unlikely to be commercialized in the near future.Reducing cost is the key to establishing an independent solar power industry.The development of solar power technology should target three areas：commercialized crystalline silicon and thin-film solar cells,new types of solar cells that can significantly drive down cost such as dye-sensitized and organic thin-film cells and the assessment of technology development and commercialization for solar power generating units.