关于央行继续实行适度宽松的货币政策的实证分析

The Positive Analysis of Chinese Central Bank's Continued Expansionary Monetary Policy

2008年下半年以后,随着金融危机全面爆发,中国人民银行相机抉择果断实行扩张性的货币政策,综合运用各种政策工具大量释放流动性,一方面有效地遏制了经济下滑,另一方面从长期来看也加大了我国通货膨胀的压力。那么央行下阶段的货币政策该何去何从?通过建立计量模型对货币供应量与经济增长的关系进行实证分析得出结论:在经济企稳回升的关键时刻,央行应当以"促进经济增长"为目标继续实行适度宽松的货币政策。

After the second half of 2008,with the breakout of the financial crisis,the People＇s Bank of China decisively to implement expansionary monetary policy,and comprehensively use various policy instruments to greatly release liquidity.On the one hand,it effectively curtails the possibility of the downturn of economic growth;on the other hand,in the long term,it has increased inflationary pressure in China.So what should be the next phase of the central bank＇s monetary policy？ By establishing econometric models to make positive analysis of money supply and economic growth,we can draw the conclusions that the Central Bank should continue to implement expansionary monetary policy based on the goal of ＂promote economic growth＂ in the crucial moment of steady rise of the economy.