基于股权自由现金流量的可持续股利支付率估算——模型的构建与实证检验

An Estimation of the Sustainable Dividend Payout Ratio Based on Free Cash Flow of Equity——Model Design and Empirical Testing

本文基于股权自由现金流量视角,构建了可持续股利支付率估算模型,并以房地产业上市公司为研究样本进行实证检验。结果表明,当样本公司的净资产收益率能够较好地满足股东所要求的最低报酬率时,整体的可持续股利支付率较低,反之则较高。文章建议,公司应通过改善自身的营运能力、盈利能力、发展能力、现金流量能力以及股东获利能力来提高股利支付率与经常性损益在净利润中所占的比重;在再投资回报率能够满足股东报酬率的前提下,可以适当增加股权自由现金流量,加大投资力度,从而达到有利于满足股东利益和公司可持续增长的双重目的。

Based on the free cash flow of equity, the paper designs the model of sustainable dividend payout ratio, makes empirical testing research in listed companies of real estate industry. The results show that the overall sustainable dividend payout ratio is lower when the listed companies＇return on equity can satisfy the requirements of the shareholders, conversely higher. The paper suggests that a company should strive to increase the dividend payout ratio and the share of recurrent profit and loss in the net profit by improving the capability of operating, earning, developing and creating more in - cash - flowing. Increasing the investment appropriately with the precondition that the rate of reinvestment return is more than the return on equity will make it possible to achieve the double goals of both the maximum of shareholder value and the company sustainable development.