人民币升值对中国制造业影响的动态CGE研究

A Dynamic CGE Study in the Impact of RMB Appreciation on China's Manufacturing

本文设计四种不同的汇率升值情景,利用一个中国经济的动态CGE模型—MCHUGE模拟分析了人民币升值对我国制造业的影响。研究结果表明:在人民币汇率升值的过程中,各行业进出口量的增长具有缩小效应,且人民币汇率升值依然会使制造业各行业产值有所上升;在相同的进口替代弹性下,出口商品数量的减少与国内商品转换弹性正相关;当人民币汇率升值,食品、纺织、化工、金属、机械行业的国内商品价格增幅随进口替代弹性的增大而降低。

By designing four different scenarios of exchange-rate appreciation, using a dynamic CGE model of China＇s economic MCHUGE, this article simulates the impacts of the RMB appreciation on China＇s manufacturing industries. The results show that： in the process of RMB exchange rate appreciation import and export volume growth in all sectors have reduced, and also cause an increase in manufacturing output of various industries; in the same elasticity of substitution of imports, the reduction of export goods and domestic goods conversion elasticity is positively correlated. When the RMB exchange rate appreciates, food, textiles, chemicals, metals, machinery industry, the domestic commodity price increases with the increase of import substitution elasticity decreasing.