基于广义帕莱托分布的关键参数求取方法探讨

THE DISCUSSION ABOUT HOW TO OBTAIN THE KEY PARAMETERS OF GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION

广义帕莱托法是进行资源潜力评价的一种重要方法,主要用于高勘探程度区。该方法可以预测地质目标中油气藏的个数与规模,进而对地质目标的资源总量和资源结构开展定量预测。该方法的核心是如何求取4个关键参数:q0(最小油藏规模)、qmax(最大油藏规模)、r(油气藏规模中位数)、λ(分布特征参数)。针对中低勘探程度地区,在资源丰度和最大油藏规模不确定的情况下,原有的方法在求取上述4个关键参数中存在一定的困难。该文从广义帕莱托方法原理及分布模型出发,探索了上述4个关键参数求取的一种新思路,并初步推导了4个关键参数的求取公式,这对广义帕莱托法的进一步推广和应用具有重要意义。

Generalized Pareto is an important method of resource assessment, this method is widely used in forecasting the total quantitative and structure of resource by calculating the number and scale of reservoir. How to obtain four key parameters is important in this method.q0 （minimum pool size）.qmax（maximum pool size）.r（median oil and gas pool size）.,λ（distribution parameter）o For low degree of exploration areas, because resource abundance and the maximum reservoir size uncertain, the key parameter is difficult ascertain by the conventional method. According to this,auther discussed how to obtain the four key parameters and deduced the formula,this is important to further application of this method.