我国电影生命周期模型及实证分析

Chinese movies' life cycle model and empirical analysis

对我国电影市场的影片生命周期进行了分析,建立了考虑季节性因素和其他影响因素的Gamma需求模型,并结合计量模型中的变截距面板数据模型与普通多元回归模型应用于研究电影观众人数及其衰减情况.估计结果显示:建立的模型能够较准确地反映我国电影市场观众人数.的变化规律.此外,针对我国电影市场,量化研究了影星的票房号召力、续集、投资规模等因素对观众人数的影响情况,为电影决策者制定策略以及预测新上映影片的观众需求做指导与借鉴.实证结果显示:考虑档期因素的必要性,并且发现较多的观众会导致影片观众人数的下降显得更快些,大制作和小制作电影的观众衰减速度相差很小,模拟支持研究结论的合理性.

Based on the analysis of movie life cycles in Chinese movie market,this article establishes the Gamma demand model considering seasonal factor and other influence factors,and studies movie audience population and the decay situation combining with variable intercept model in panel data model and multiple regression model.The result shows that the model could more accurately reflect the audience population change rule in domestic movie market.In addition,in view of Chinese movie market,quantitative study has been carried out in order to make clear how the factors such as movie stars,sequel,budget etc.affect the audience population,what help the movie policy-maker make some instructions to formulate strategies as well as the audience demand forecasts.Empirical study shows the necessity of considering seasonality.In addition,We find large amount of audiences can cause the audience decay rate to appear quicker,in fact the difference of the decay rate between big budget and small budget movies is very small, which is different from some other literatures,and a simulation indicates our conclusion is reasonable.