航空运输投资对经济增长的影响及其机制的实证研究

Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Effect on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism Due to China's Air Transport Investment

机场作为重要的基础设施在区域经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色,而机场的数量和规模在很大程度上取决于航空运输投资,航空运输投资对经济增长的影响及其内在机制的研究在国内鲜见。本文运用中国1985-2007年相关数据分别建立两变量VAR模型,通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,全面探讨航空运输投资对经济增长影响的长期关系及因果方向,再利用脉冲响应和方差分解分析其动态时滞性。研究结果表明:航空运输投资通过资本积累、投资吸引、需求促进、进出口促进、产业结构优化和城市化等效应影响经济增长,同一效应各期影响程度各异,不同效应间时滞期数各异。

As an important infrastructure,airports have been playing an increasingly important role in regional economic development.The number and scale of airports are decided by air transport investment to a great extent.Research of the dynamic impact of Air transport investment on economic growth is rare in China.Using China＇s related data of 1985-2007 to build bivariate VAR models,this paper tests long-run and causality relations of the impact mechanism by cointegration test and Granger causality test,and also analyzes its dynamic time lag effect by impulse-response function and variance decomposition.The results show that：Air transport investment impacts economic growth through effects of capital accumulation,investment attracting,demand promotion,export promotion,optimal upgrading of industry structure and urbanization.There are varying influence degrees of each period of every effect and different time lag between different effects.