基于变参数的福建农村居民收入对消费的协整分析

The Cointegration Analysis on the Variable Parameter-based Income of Fujian Province′s Rural Residents for Consumption

以福建省1978～2008年农村居民消费与收入时间序列数据为样本,运用变参数状态空间模型,拟合了制度变迁和闽台农业合作背景下福建省农村居民收入对消费行为的影响路径,为我省农村经济政策的制定和闽台农业合作的扩展提供了一定的参考。

Based on the time sequence data from 1978 to 2008 about rural residents′ consumption and income of Fujian Province, this paper uses the space model of variable parameter state to simulate the influencing path of Fujian rural residents＇ income on their consumption behaviors in the condition of institutional change and agricultural cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan. The main purpose is to provide some references for our province′ s economic policy making and the expansion of agricultural cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan.