基于遗传算法的门限自回归模型在浅层地下水位预测中的应用

Threshold auto regressive model based on genetic algorithm and its application to forecasting the shallow groundwater level

提出了建立门限自回归模型的一种简便通用的方法，用遗传算法可同时优化门限值和自回归系数．实例计算的结果说明了其可行性和有效性．

A simple and universal scheme is suggested to deduce the threshold auto regressive model.Both threshold values and auto regressive parameters can be optimized with genetic algorithm.The example shows that the scheme is practical and effective.The method can be applied to the forecasting of time series in various engineering practices.