改革开放以来我国住房政策变迁的动力分析——以多源流理论为视角

Analysis on the Dynamics of Chinese Housing Policy Changes Since Reform and Opening-up:From the Perspective of Multiple-Streams Framework

多源流理论作为一种重要的政策变迁理论,为我们探讨改革开放以来我国住房政策变迁的动力提供了一种比较有效的分析视角和分析工具。问题之窗与政治之窗的打开都能为改革开放以来我国住房政策的变迁提供机会,但有些住房政策变迁情形也可能是起因于方案可行性程度的提高。另外,改革开放以来我国住房政策的变迁有赖于问题源流、政策源流和政治源流的交汇,即问题、政策方案与政治形势三者的有机结合。在运用多源流理论对改革开放以来我国住房政策变迁的动力进行分析的基础上,可以构建出一个政策变迁动力模式,这一模式包含五种政策变迁动力因素:问题的变化、方案可行性的增强、政治形势的变化、外部事件的冲击、正面政策效果的积累。这五种因素从不同的方面启示了政府应如何更好地推进我国住房政策的变迁。

As an important policy change theory,Multiple-Streams Framework(MSF)can give us an effective analysis instrument to analyze the dynamics of Chinese housing policy changes since Reform and Opening-up.The opening of problem and political windows can both supply opportunities for Chinese housing policy changes since Reform and Opening-up,however,some instances of the housing policy changes may be stem from the improvement of solution feasibility.Additionally,Chinese housing policy changes since Reform and Opening-up cannot occur without the connection of problem stream,policy stream and political stream,namely the tight combination of problems,policy solutions,and political situations.On the base of analyzing the dynamics of Chinese housing policy changes since Reform and Opening-up using MSF,this paper constructs a model of policy changes,which concludes five policy change dynamics,namely the change of problem,the improvement of solution feasibility,the change of political situation,the striking of external events and the accumulation of positive effects.The five policy change dynamics can enlighten governments to promote housing policy changes from different perspectives.