情景基础的水资源承载力多目标分析理论及应用

A Scenario-Based Framework for Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Water Carrying Capacity

根据水资源承载力分析的结构特点，在传统多目标分析决策技术的基础上，结合黑河流域的具体情况，阐述了一种新的水资源承载力分析框架-情景分析在承载力分析决策过程中，情景分析主要扮演2个角色：提供供决策者决策分析的情景；帮助不同的利益团体在决策过程中辨明潜在的折衷解．相比传统的多目标决策分析技术，情景分析方法更注重基础模型（后台情景）的建立和决策过程中决策者偏好的反映．详细介绍了黑河流域水资源承载力情景分析的模型，并采用正交设计的研究方法，针对张掖地区2004年的分水任务，采用Lg（34）正交表设计了9种情景；对酒泉地区根据不同来水保证情况设计了3种情景．同时还简要分析了不同情景组合对张掖地区经济和粮食占有量的影响.

This paper describes the scenariobased framework for multi criteria decision analysis in water carrying capacity. Scene analysis play two roles in the process of multi criteria decision analysis: choosing scenarios to decision-maker and identifying potential compromises to various interest groups in formulating individual preference orders. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it with the text of regional water resource planning in the middle of Heihe River are discussed.The water carrying capacity model in Heihe valley consist of six sub-model such as macro-economic model, population model, land resources subject model, water resources development and utilization model, water environment model and water projects investment model. In accordance with specific conditions of Heihe valley, the table of L9(34) was adapted to establish the multiple criteria decision-making model in Zhangye district, three scene was designed according to variation of water-supplyed in Jiuquan district.