关于震磁关系“综合解释”层次的初步分析

Preliminary analysis of the structure of“comprehensive explanation” on seismic magnetic relationship

从系统分析的角度出发，提出以磁报震的实质是综合预报，而综合预报的基础则是综合解释。作为一个认识系统，以磁报震的综合解释主要由４个层次（４个要素）组成，即地磁场异常变化（层次Ⅰ），构造环境及应力场的变化（层次Ⅱ），系统相关要素的变化（层次Ⅲ），外部环境要素的变化等（层次Ⅳ）。以磁报震不应简单归结为完全以地磁异常变化为基点的地震预报，而应是由多要素（层次）组成的有机分析系统，即在以层次Ⅰ为核心的认识基础上，兼顾其他要素（层次）的分析。只有做到综合解释，才能实现真正意义上的以磁报震。

This paper deals with the characteristics of predicting earthquake by using geomagnetic method based on the comprehensive explanation of various factors concerned.The structure of the comprehensive explanation system consists of 4 levels(or elements):the anomalous changes in geomagnectic field(level Ⅰ),the variations in stress field and tectonic enviroment(level Ⅱ),changes in those elements associated with the system(level Ⅲ)and the variations in external circumstances(level Ⅳ).Based on these points of view,the method of predicting earthquake by using geomagnetism should not be simply attributed as the one which is only on the basis of anomalous gemagnetic behaviours,instead,should be the one which apply the comprehensive explanation system with four levels,i.e.take the level Ⅰ as the kernel function together with elements in other levels.