快速城市化进程是否有利于农民增收——以天津地区为例

Research on the Relationship between Fast Urbanization and Growth in Farmers' Income——A Case in Tianjin

通过天津地区时间序列数据建立VAR模型以及进行Granger因果关系检验,认为,城市化进程有利于农民增收,但是Granger因果关系并不显著;相反,农民收入增长得越快,反而有助于推进城市化进程。盲目加快城市化进程,容易造成一些负面影响。

By establishing VAR model and using Granger Causality Test based on time series data in Tianjin,this paper argues that urbanization has much to do with the growth in farmers＇ income,but Granger causality between them is not obvious.The empirical findings show that the fast urbanization does not necessarily bring about corresponding vast growth in farmers＇ income.Therefore,blindly accelerating the speed of urbanization tends to bring about negative effects.