基于系统动力学的某市水环境承载力动态变化研究

Study on the Dynamic Change of the Water Environment Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics in a city

在对某市社会、经济、环境系统分析的基础上,建立了该市的水环境承载力系统动力学模型,针对目前该市水环境存在的问题提出了9种水环境保护模拟方案。通过对各个方案下水环境承载力的动态变化分析比较,确定出了符合该市社会经济可持续发展要求的最优方案,从而为该市走可持续发展道路提供了科学的决策依据。

A system dynamics model of water environment carrying capacity in a city is constructed based on the studying of society, economy and environment in the city, and study out nine simulating program. The optimization program cohering with the sustainable development of the city＇ s society and economy is confirmed by comparing the water environment carrying capacity of different program, which can be used as a strategic decision for the sustainable development of the city.