基于STIRPAT模型的广州市耕地变化社会经济驱动力分析

Cultivated Land Area Change and its Socio-economic Driving Forces Based on STIRPAT Model

根据广州市1978—2005年耕地面积数据及相关社会经济影响因素的时间序列数据,应用STIRPAT模型,分析人口、产业结构城市化水平对耕地面积变化的影响及富裕度与耕地占用之间的相关性。结果表明:在影响耕地面积变化的诸多因素中,并没有显示出明显的主导因素,而是人口、产业结构和城市化水平共同综合作用影响着耕地面积的变化;在观察的数据范围内,富裕度和耕地面积之间并未形成类似环境Kuznets曲线。据此认为,对于缓解广州市的耕地面积减少的压力问题,可以在调整产业结构、提高城市化水平、转变经济增长方式等方面统筹决策。

Introducing STIRPAT model,influence of population,industrial structure and the level of urbanization on the cultivated land changes were analyzed and the relationship between prosperous level and cultivated land area were analyzed in Guangzhou city,using the cultivated land data and related socio-economic development data from 1978 to 2005. The results showed that there was no main cause for cultivated land reduction in Guangzhou city. However,population change,changes of the urbanization rate and proportion of the tertiary-industry added value to regional GDP of the area all play important role in the cultivated land reduction. In the scope of observational data,the relationship between the prosperous level and the cultivated land area was not similar to the environmental kuznets curve （EKC）. Accordingly,several suggestions were proposed in the study to mitigate the pressure of cultivated land reduction,including population control,urbanization level improvement,industrial structure adjustment,and economic growth mode transition,etc.