中国蔬菜出口贸易变动的新趋势及影响因素分析

New Trends of the Vegetable Exporting Changes and Influence Factors in China

本文在分析中国蔬菜出口贸易最新特点的基础上,从蔬菜出口总量变动、出口去向结构、出口的国内地区来源结构、出口品种结构方面对中国蔬菜出口贸易新趋势进行分析;然后运用引力模型对蔬菜出口贸易变动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国和出口对象国(或地区)的GDP变量、人口变量、汇率变量、FTA变量均为重要影响因素,良好的贸易伙伴间的互惠制度安排有利于促进中国蔬菜贸易发展,减少双边贸易阻力。

Based on analyzing new exporting characteristics of vegetable,this paper analyzed the new trends of the vegetable exporting changes in China from following aspects：the changes of vegetable exporting quantities,exporting destination structures,exporting domestic regional sources and exporting species structures.Then Gravity Model was used to do empirical analysis on main factors which affected new trends of vegetable exporting.The results showed that GDP,population,exchange rate and FTA variables were important factors.It was also found that appropriate mutual beneficial institutional arrangements among trading partners could promote Chinese vegetable trading and reduce bilateral trading resistance.