香港/澳门近72年海平面变化曲线

SEA LEVEL CHANGE CURVE IN RECENT 72 YEARS IN HONG KONG AND Macao

取１９５９年为接口，将澳门的前段记录（１９２５～１９５８年）与香港的后段记录（１９５９～１９９６年）连接起来，统一按香港海图基准面起算，可以得到最近７２年（１９２５～１９５８年）均一的海平面月均序列。海平面曲线反映海平面呈波动上升趋势，其中存在异常高海平面和异常低海平面。按香港和澳门的验潮资料，海平面上升速率为１．８±０．１ｍｍ／ａ。海滩岩的高程、地震活动、地形变化表明：香港和澳门地区的构造处于相对平稳状态，因此，１．８±０．

The tidal stations in Hong Kong and Macao provide the longest tidal records since 1925 along the coastal region of the South China Sea. However some abnormal errors or omissions during 1953-1956 and 1930-1949 in Hong Kong and 1963-1981 in Macao can be seen. Therefore taking 1959 as a connexion to continue the previous stage of 1925-1958 in Macao with the latter stage of 1959-1996 in Hong Kong, an impartial monthly mean series of sea level starting unify from the sea map base level of Hong Kong during recent 72 years (1925-1996) can be obtained. The sea level curve reveals a fluctuation tendency of sea level rise including abnormal higher and lower sea level, the former is related with the runoff of the Zhujiang River and the latter is in keeping with the strong El Nino year. The rate of sea level rise is calculated as 1.8 mm/a in recent 72 years using by single linear regression, and 2.0 mm/a during 1959-1994 dispeling the high frequency components from Fourier Transform. In addition dividing the series into 11 sets of 1955-1994, 1956-1994...1965-1994, and then calculated the average rate as 1.64±0.25 mm/a. Therefore the rate of 1.8±0.1 mm/a is epitomized from the tidal data in Hong Kong and Macao. The elevation of beach rock, earthquake activity and ground deformation indicate the relative stability of structure in Hong Kong and Macao, so that the rate of 1.8±0.1 mm/a can be deduced as the rise rate of theoretical sea level along the coastal region of South China Sea.