“96.8”暴雨的水汽来源及对水汽敏感性的模拟分析

The Heavy Rain′s Vapor Sources and Vapor Sensitivity Simulation in August 1996

首先用实测资料分析了河北“９６．８”暴雨过程的水汽来源，指出造成这次暴雨的水汽主要来自南海、孟加拉湾和台风低压本身携带的水汽。最后用ＭＭ４模式模拟分析了暴雨水汽的敏感性，得知水汽条件小的变化可能引起降水量大的改变。

The vapor sources of the heavy rain during August 1996 in terms of real data was studied.The result points out that the vapor of the torrential rain comes from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal as well as typhoon low itself carrying moisture.Finally,the heavy rain sensitivity to vapor by virtue of MM4 model was analysed.It is suggested that a little variety of vapors can bring large change of rainfall and latent heat releasing has positive feedback effects to heavy rain.