甜菜夜蛾成虫种群数量与气候因子关系的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of the Relationship of Spodoptera exigua Polulation Dynamics with Climatic Factor Changes

于1998-2005年通过性诱剂对长沙甜菜夜蛾种群动态进行了全年监测,并就气候影响因子对该种群成虫数量变动的影响进行了分析.结果表明:甜菜夜蛾在长沙各年份的成虫种群数量相差很大.每年11月至第二年7月,甜菜夜蛾成虫种群处于低水平状态,8月以后种群数量迅速上升,11月后种群数量迅速下降.协整分析表明:8-10月总降雨量、日照时数、月平均气温,年极端最高气温,年极端最低气温是影响长沙甜菜夜蛾成虫种群变动的主要气候因子.8-10月平均气温对种群数量变动具有正效应,是直接影响甜菜夜蛾成虫种群变动的重要指标;年最低温是影响种群增长最主要的限制因素;8-10月总降雨量对种群动态的综合影响力最大.

We inspected and recorded the population dynamics of Spodoptera exigua with sex attractant from 1998 to 2005 in Changsha, Hunan and analyzed its relationship with climatic factors. The results indicated that the explosions of Spodoptera exigua happened intermittently, and the population dynamics changed greatly in different years. From November to next July, the number of S. exigua was relatively small; the population proliferated in August, and then decreased again in November. Cointegrative analysis showed that the amount of rainfall, sunshine hours and average temperature in August, September and October, the extreme maximum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature were the main cli- matic factors that affected the population dynamics of S. exigua. The average temperature in August, September and October had positive effects on the population dynamics, which affected the number of S. exigua directly, the extreme minimum temperature was one of the main climatic factors that restrained the increase of S. exigua, and the rainfall in August, September and October had a comprehensive influence on the population dynamics.