登陆广东省的初、终热带气旋分析及预测

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR FIRST-, FINAL-LANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDED IN GUANGDONG

本文分析了太平洋海温异常、ＥＮＳＯ与登陆广东省的初、终热带气旋的关系，并用海温建立了广东省初、终热带气旋的预报方程。

The first-landing,last-landing in Guangdong tropical cyclones (called 'F.T.C' and 'L.T.C' respectively) every year have great significance in operational prediction. In this paper we analysis the relation of 'F.T.C' and 'L.T.C' with the sea temperatre distribution of North-west Pasific ocean,We discover the differences among three kinds of 'F.T.C.' in sea temperatre in early wintter and three kinds of 'L.T.C' in sea temperatre in peoriod of MAR-MAY.Finally,the 'F.T.C' and 'L.T.C'regression equations are found by use of the sea temperatre as predictor.